Analysis: The trading price of Bitcoin is still about 21% higher than its realized price, and no bottom signals have yet appeared

According to CoinDesk, the gap between Bitcoin's spot price and its realized price (the average cost basis of all on-chain tokens weighted by their last transaction time) is narrowing, approaching the levels seen at the bottoms of past cycles. However, on-chain data shows that the market has not yet experienced a typical capitulation sell-off. Currently, Bitcoin's realized price is about $54,286, the spot price is about $68,774, and the premium is about 21%. The bottom signal of the 2022 bear market was when the spot price fell below the realized price, which occurred when the spot was about 15% lower than the realized price at the cycle low.

The current 21% premium indicates that the average holder is still in profit. To reach the realized price, Bitcoin would need to drop about 20% to $54,000. Notably, the speed of the premium's contraction, from about 120% at the end of 2024 to 21% after 15 months, is the fastest approach to the realized price line outside of a market crash.

Other on-chain signals also indicate that the market has not completed its reset: the Coinbase premium index has returned to negative values, suggesting weakened institutional demand. Analysts believe that although Bitcoin has maintained a range of $65,000 to $70,000 for five weeks, the inflow of over $1 billion into ETFs in March shows there are buyers, but the market has not yet gone through the painful process that historically marks a bottom.