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Forbes: On Oscar Night, the Real Winner Was Kalshi?
Original Article Title: And The Winner Is… Kalshi? Prediction Markets Soar On Oscars
Original Article Author: Jason Brett, Forbes
Original Article Translation: Saoires, Foresight News
Reality TV star Kevin O'Leary from "Shark Tank," also known as "Mr. Wonderful," walks the red carpet at the 98th Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. The investor later publicly stated that he personally bet $1000 on the Kalshi platform, wagering on Timothée Chalamet to win the Oscar for Best Actor. (Image source: Getty Images)
On the evening of March 15th, local time in the U.S., the 98th Academy Awards took place at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. However, outside of this grand event, there was one platform that stole the spotlight — and that was Kalshi.
While Conan O'Brien hosted the awards ceremony live on ABC and Hulu, traders on Kalshi and Polymarket had already poured over $120 million into Oscar-related event contracts. This marked the largest-ever betting frenzy on a regulated prediction market during the awards season. Driving this all was the milestone guidance and regulatory rules issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) just three days prior.
Alone, Kalshi's trading volume had surpassed $58 million and was still rising in real-time during the ceremony; Polymarket contributed the remaining trading volume, pushing the total scale past $120 million. This figure is approximately 6 to 7 times Kalshi's entire trading volume from last year's awards season, representing a significant leap from 2025.
Elisabeth Diana, PR Manager at Kalshi, told me via email: "The reason the Oscars are so hot on the trading market is because it is considered the ultimate test of 'collective intelligence.'"
Many celebrities even personally participated. At the Oscars red carpet that evening, reality TV star Kevin O'Leary from "Shark Tank" — who also appeared in the movie "Don't Look Up" starring Timothée Chalamet — publicly announced that he personally bet $1000 on Kalshi, betting on Timothée Chalamet to win Best Actor. This action was entirely voluntary and was not part of any commercial agreement, paid promotion, or prearrangement.
The funding flow on the Kalshi platform clearly shows a heavy prize pool concentration:
· Best Actor: Around $25 million (most competitive, also Kevin O'Leary's betted category);
· Best Picture: Around $24 million (market more bullish on "Once Again War");
· Best Director: Around $7 million;
· Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress: Each around $5 million.
This collective intelligence was fully displayed that evening, even integrating into the awards ceremony itself.
Host Conan O'Brien, in his opening monologue, deliberately joked about artificial intelligence and Timothée Chalamet's February controversial remarks on ballet and opera. This incident briefly flipped the odds for Best Actor on Kalshi until traders remembered that the Oscar voting had already closed, prompting the market to readjust.
Similar real-time price fluctuations played out in each award category, turning passive viewers into active players participating in real-time from a market perspective.
The timing of this eruption was perfect. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) staff guidance and proposed rule pre-announcement issued on March 12 provided clear federal regulatory pathways for Kalshi-type licensed platforms. Traders finally gained the long-awaited regulatory certainty and responded with record-breaking trading volumes.
Kalshi's integration with Rotten Tomatoes movie ratings, along with its user-friendly mobile app, made it easier than ever for the general public to participate. The result: Oscar night was no longer just about the red carpet and acceptance speeches; it became a regulated, data-driven event where collective intelligence collided with Hollywood glamour.
As the final few awards were revealed one by one, each envelope opening instantly affected market trends. Whether "Once Again War" swept the major awards or a dark horse emerged in the end, one thing was very clear:
The true winner of the 2026 Oscars was the compliant prediction market experiencing explosive growth.
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Sun Valley Releases 2025 Financial Report: Bitcoin Mining Revenue Reaches $670 Million, Accelerating Transformation to AI Infrastructure Platform
On March 16, 2026, in Dallas, Texas, USA, CanGu Company (New York Stock Exchange code: CANG, hereinafter referred to as "CanGu" or the "Company") today announced its unaudited financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. As a btc-42">bitcoin mining enterprise relying on a globally operated layout and dedicated to building an integrated energy and AI computing power platform, CanGu is actively advancing its business transformation and infrastructure development.
• Financial Performance:
Total revenue for the full year 2025 was $688.1 million, with $179.5 million in the fourth quarter.
Bitcoin mining business revenue for the full year was $675.5 million, with $172.4 million in the fourth quarter.
Full-year adjusted EBITDA was $24.5 million, while the fourth quarter was -$156.3 million.
• Mining Operations and Costs:
A total of 6,594.6 bitcoins were mined throughout the year, averaging 18.07 bitcoins per day; of which 1,718.3 bitcoins were mined in the fourth quarter, averaging 18.68 bitcoins per day.
The average mining cost for the full year (excluding miner depreciation) was $79,707 per bitcoin, and for the fourth quarter, it was $84,552;
The all-in sustaining costs were $97,272 and $106,251 per bitcoin, respectively.
As of the end of December 2025, the company has cumulatively produced 7,528.4 bitcoins since entering the bitcoin mining business.
• Strategic Progress:
The company has completed the termination of the American Depositary Receipt (ADR) program and transitioned to a direct listing on the NYSE to enhance information transparency and align with its strategic direction, with a long-term goal of expanding its investor base.
CEO Paul Yu stated: "2025 marked the company's first full year as a bitcoin mining enterprise, characterized by rapid execution and structural reshaping. We completed a comprehensive adjustment of our asset system and established a globally distributed mining network. Additionally, the company introduced a new management team, further strengthening our capabilities and competitive advantage in the digital asset and energy infrastructure space. The completion of the NYSE direct listing and USD pricing also signifies our transformation into a global AI infrastructure company."
"As we enter 2026, the company will continue to optimize its balance sheet structure and enhance operational efficiency and cost resilience through adjustments to the miner portfolio. At the same time, we are advancing our strategic transformation into an AI infrastructure provider. Leveraging EcoHash, we will utilize our capabilities in scalable computing power and energy networks to provide cost-effective AI inference solutions. The relevant site transformations and product development are progressing simultaneously, and the company is well-positioned to sustain its execution in the new phase."
The company's Chief Financial Officer, Michael Zhang, stated: "By 2025, the company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth through its scaled mining operations. Despite recording a net loss of $452.8 million from ongoing operations, mainly due to one-time transformation costs and market-driven fair value adjustments, the company, from a financial perspective, will reduce its leverage, optimize its Bitcoin reserve strategy and liquidity management, introduce new capital to strengthen its financial position, and seize investment opportunities in high-potential areas such as AI infrastructure while navigating market volatility."
The total revenue for the fourth quarter was $1.795 billion. Of this, the Bitcoin mining business contributed $1.724 billion in revenue, generating 1,718.3 Bitcoins during the quarter. Revenue from the international automobile trading business was $4.8 million.
The total operating costs and expenses for the fourth quarter amounted to $4.56 billion, primarily attributed to expenses related to the Bitcoin mining business, as well as impairment of mining machines and fair value losses on Bitcoin collateral receivables.
This includes:
· Cost of Revenue (excluding depreciation): $1.553 billion
· Cost of Revenue (depreciation): $38.1 million
· Operating Expenses: $9.9 million (including related-party expenses of $1.1 million)
· Mining Machine Impairment Loss: $81.4 million
· Fair Value Loss on Bitcoin Collateral Receivables: $171.4 million
The operating loss for the fourth quarter was $276.6 million, a significant increase from a loss of $0.7 million in the same period of 2024, primarily due to the downward trend in Bitcoin prices.
The net loss from ongoing operations was $285 million, compared to a net profit of $2.4 million in the same period last year.
The adjusted EBITDA was -$156.3 million, compared to $2.4 million in the same period last year.
The total revenue for the full year was $6.881 billion. Of this, the revenue from the Bitcoin mining business was $6.755 billion, with a total output of 6,594.6 Bitcoins for the year. Revenue from the international automobile trading business was $9.8 million.
The total annual operating costs and expenses amount to $1.1 billion.
Specifically, they include:
· Revenue Cost (excluding depreciation): $543.3 million
· Revenue Cost (depreciation): $116.6 million
· Operating Expenses: $28.9 million (including related-party expenses of $1.1 million)
· Miner Impairment Loss: $338.3 million
· Bitcoin Collateral Receivable Fair Value Change Loss: $96.5 million
The full-year operating loss is $437.1 million. The continuing operations net loss is $452.8 million, while in 2024, there was a net profit of $4.8 million.
The 2025 non-GAAP adjusted net profit is $24.5 million (compared to $5.7 million in 2024). This measure does not include share-based compensation expenses; refer to "Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures" for details.
As of December 31, 2025, the company's key assets and liabilities are as follows:
· Cash and Cash Equivalents: $41.2 million
· Bitcoin Collateral Receivable (Non-current, related party): $663.0 million
· Miner Net Value: $248.7 million
· Long-Term Debt (related party): $557.6 million
In February 2026, the company sold 4,451 bitcoins and repaid a portion of related-party long-term debt to reduce financial leverage and optimize the asset-liability structure.
As per the stock repurchase plan disclosed on March 13, 2025, as of December 31, 2025, the company had repurchased a total of 890,155 shares of Class A common stock for approximately $1.2 million.
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