New Account Deposit Over $60,000 Believes U.S. Military Will Enter Iran by May

According to PolyBeats monitoring, a new account has invested $60.8k in the prediction market Polymarket, buying "Yes" on "Will the US military enter Iran before April 30," with the current probability at 55%.

During an interview on March 17, Trump stated that he is not afraid to deploy ground troops and openly declared that he is different from past presidents who vowed never to send ground troops. Secretary of Defense Hagasek also explicitly refused to rule out the possibility of deploying ground troops during a Pentagon briefing, emphasizing that the US military is willing to take all necessary actions and stating that they "will never reveal the bottom line of the operation to the enemy or the media."

With the blockade of the Hormuz Strait raising global oil prices, analysts believe that if the US military were to forcefully open the strait, occupy the strategic Khark Island responsible for 90% of Iran's oil exports, or control underground high-enriched uranium facilities, a simple airstrike would not achieve the objectives and ground troops would be necessary. In addition, multiple reports confirm that the Pentagon is preparing to deploy ground troops, including thousands of Marines sailing to the Middle East.

Although the military is preparing various options, Trump himself stated on March 19-20 that there is currently no clear decision to deploy US ground troops for combat, bluntly stating that if troops were to be sent, "the outside world will absolutely not be informed in advance." Furthermore, Trump has previously mentioned that relying on the existing air and naval superiority is sufficient to destroy enemy defenses and sending ground troops may be a waste of time. From a political perspective, a large-scale ground invasion is highly likely to drag the US into a long-term war quagmire, contradicting his campaign promise to keep the US out of new conflicts in the Middle East. Once the threshold of ground combat is crossed, there will be tremendous domestic public opinion and congressional scrutiny pressure.

Account:
0x340b374046d3e8d97da8d6c9b7fd6e4bf74d797b

Total Investment: $60.8k
---------------------------------
See the future sooner, follow @PolyBeats_Bot
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN