Oil Price Surges, Inflation Rekindled: Will the Fed's Next Move Be a Rate Hike?

By: blockbeats|2026/03/16 18:00:01

Original Title: "An Unthinkable Question Just Weeks Ago: Will the Fed Hike Rates Next?"

Original Author: Dong Jing, Wall Street News

As fuel prices have surged since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, a question that was almost unthinkable just weeks ago has emerged: Will the Fed's next move be a rate hike?

The financial markets are beginning to entertain this possibility. Traders in the derivatives market are pricing in about a 25% probability of a rate hike this year. This shift in expectations highlights the direct impact of geopolitical conflicts on the global energy market and inflation outlook, prompting investors to repricing the Fed's policy path.

While most economists expect the Fed to stay put at the upcoming meeting, the discussion of a rate hike is no longer off the table.

Analysts argue that this development has not only shattered the market's widespread expectation of further Fed rate cuts but has also injected a high level of uncertainty into the future monetary policy trajectory, directly affecting bond yields and stock market risk appetite.

Fed officials will convene for the monetary policy meeting on March 17-18. The market will be closely watching Powell's remarks for any clue about the future rate path.

Inflation Worries Reignite, Calls for Rate Hike Emerge

The surge in oil prices has directly raised inflation expectations, prompting some market participants to call for Fed tightening.

Chief Economist at High Frequency Economics, Carl Weinberg, believes the Fed should hike rates at the upcoming meeting. He predicts that by this summer, oil prices will drive the Fed's favored inflation gauge—the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE)—to a 3.5% annual rate.

"The Fed's job is to minimize the risk of the worst outcome, namely, price acceleration above the target," Weinberg wrote in a report to clients.

He added:

"Even if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) does not hike rates next week—we now refuse to rule out the possibility—officials will certainly discuss the issue, and we expect Mr. Powell to let us know at his press conference."

Despite the calls for a rate hike, most economists do not expect the Fed to take action in the short term. Given the uncertainty brought by the war, nearly all economists expect the Fed to adopt a 'wait-and-see' approach.

Former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan Urges Fed to Be Patient, Says, "I have a strange feeling that by the end of March, the situation will look different than it does now."

Former Fed senior official Vincent Reinhart also noted that the majority within the Fed still leans toward easing monetary policy, "but not in a hurry." He believes, "The events in the Middle East have not changed this direction, only giving you more reasons to wait."

Additionally, Deutsche Bank's Chief U.S. Economist Matthew Luzzetti pointed out that a prerequisite for hiking rates is for the labor market to not only bounce back but to strengthen. However, the U.S. labor market has been struggling, adding only an average of 6,000 jobs in the past three months.

Finding Signals of a Policy Shift

While the Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged, economists will be closely watching for any signals about the Fed's next move.

James Egelhof, Chief U.S. Economist at BNP Paribas Securities, said he will be watching whether Fed officials will change their language to indicate whether they plan to cut or raise rates in the coming months.

The Fed's standard script calls for officials to "look through" the oil price shock or treat it as temporary because inflation related to rising oil prices will not persist.

However, Egelhof noted that given the persistently high inflation seen since 2021, Fed officials will be deeply divided on whether to take this approach.

Comerica's Chief Economist Bill Adams agreed that the Fed will signal an openness to both raising and lowering rates. He said:

"If inflation is at the 2% target level, the Fed's concerns about credibility and anchoring inflation expectations would be less than they are now."

Adams pointed out that policymakers may signal that they will use tools to prevent energy price shocks from translating into a rise in trend inflation rates. "This is a conditional willingness to hike, but not a signal of imminent rate hikes."

Original Article Link

-- Price

On March 16, 2026, in Dallas, Texas, USA, CanGu Company (New York Stock Exchange code: CANG, hereinafter referred to as "CanGu" or the "Company") today announced its unaudited financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. As a btc-42">bitcoin mining enterprise relying on a globally operated layout and dedicated to building an integrated energy and AI computing power platform, CanGu is actively advancing its business transformation and infrastructure development.

2025 Full Year and Fourth Quarter Financial and Operational Highlights

• Financial Performance:

Total revenue for the full year 2025 was $688.1 million, with $179.5 million in the fourth quarter.

Bitcoin mining business revenue for the full year was $675.5 million, with $172.4 million in the fourth quarter.

Full-year adjusted EBITDA was $24.5 million, while the fourth quarter was -$156.3 million.

• Mining Operations and Costs:

A total of 6,594.6 bitcoins were mined throughout the year, averaging 18.07 bitcoins per day; of which 1,718.3 bitcoins were mined in the fourth quarter, averaging 18.68 bitcoins per day.

The average mining cost for the full year (excluding miner depreciation) was $79,707 per bitcoin, and for the fourth quarter, it was $84,552;

The all-in sustaining costs were $97,272 and $106,251 per bitcoin, respectively.

As of the end of December 2025, the company has cumulatively produced 7,528.4 bitcoins since entering the bitcoin mining business.

• Strategic Progress:

The company has completed the termination of the American Depositary Receipt (ADR) program and transitioned to a direct listing on the NYSE to enhance information transparency and align with its strategic direction, with a long-term goal of expanding its investor base.

CEO Paul Yu stated: "2025 marked the company's first full year as a bitcoin mining enterprise, characterized by rapid execution and structural reshaping. We completed a comprehensive adjustment of our asset system and established a globally distributed mining network. Additionally, the company introduced a new management team, further strengthening our capabilities and competitive advantage in the digital asset and energy infrastructure space. The completion of the NYSE direct listing and USD pricing also signifies our transformation into a global AI infrastructure company."

"As we enter 2026, the company will continue to optimize its balance sheet structure and enhance operational efficiency and cost resilience through adjustments to the miner portfolio. At the same time, we are advancing our strategic transformation into an AI infrastructure provider. Leveraging EcoHash, we will utilize our capabilities in scalable computing power and energy networks to provide cost-effective AI inference solutions. The relevant site transformations and product development are progressing simultaneously, and the company is well-positioned to sustain its execution in the new phase."

The company's Chief Financial Officer, Michael Zhang, stated: "By 2025, the company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth through its scaled mining operations. Despite recording a net loss of $452.8 million from ongoing operations, mainly due to one-time transformation costs and market-driven fair value adjustments, the company, from a financial perspective, will reduce its leverage, optimize its Bitcoin reserve strategy and liquidity management, introduce new capital to strengthen its financial position, and seize investment opportunities in high-potential areas such as AI infrastructure while navigating market volatility."

Fourth Quarter 2025 Ongoing Operations Financial Performance

Revenue

The total revenue for the fourth quarter was $1.795 billion. Of this, the Bitcoin mining business contributed $1.724 billion in revenue, generating 1,718.3 Bitcoins during the quarter. Revenue from the international automobile trading business was $4.8 million.

Operating Costs and Expenses

The total operating costs and expenses for the fourth quarter amounted to $4.56 billion, primarily attributed to expenses related to the Bitcoin mining business, as well as impairment of mining machines and fair value losses on Bitcoin collateral receivables.

This includes:

· Cost of Revenue (excluding depreciation): $1.553 billion

· Cost of Revenue (depreciation): $38.1 million

· Operating Expenses: $9.9 million (including related-party expenses of $1.1 million)

· Mining Machine Impairment Loss: $81.4 million

· Fair Value Loss on Bitcoin Collateral Receivables: $171.4 million

Profit Situation

The operating loss for the fourth quarter was $276.6 million, a significant increase from a loss of $0.7 million in the same period of 2024, primarily due to the downward trend in Bitcoin prices.

The net loss from ongoing operations was $285 million, compared to a net profit of $2.4 million in the same period last year.

The adjusted EBITDA was -$156.3 million, compared to $2.4 million in the same period last year.

Full Year 2025 Ongoing Operations Financial Performance

Revenue

The total revenue for the full year was $6.881 billion. Of this, the revenue from the Bitcoin mining business was $6.755 billion, with a total output of 6,594.6 Bitcoins for the year. Revenue from the international automobile trading business was $9.8 million.

Operating Costs and Expenses

The total annual operating costs and expenses amount to $1.1 billion.

Specifically, they include:

· Revenue Cost (excluding depreciation): $543.3 million

· Revenue Cost (depreciation): $116.6 million

· Operating Expenses: $28.9 million (including related-party expenses of $1.1 million)

· Miner Impairment Loss: $338.3 million

· Bitcoin Collateral Receivable Fair Value Change Loss: $96.5 million

Profitability

The full-year operating loss is $437.1 million. The continuing operations net loss is $452.8 million, while in 2024, there was a net profit of $4.8 million.

The 2025 non-GAAP adjusted net profit is $24.5 million (compared to $5.7 million in 2024). This measure does not include share-based compensation expenses; refer to "Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures" for details.

Financial Position

As of December 31, 2025, the company's key assets and liabilities are as follows:

· Cash and Cash Equivalents: $41.2 million

· Bitcoin Collateral Receivable (Non-current, related party): $663.0 million

· Miner Net Value: $248.7 million

· Long-Term Debt (related party): $557.6 million

In February 2026, the company sold 4,451 bitcoins and repaid a portion of related-party long-term debt to reduce financial leverage and optimize the asset-liability structure.

Stock Repurchase

As per the stock repurchase plan disclosed on March 13, 2025, as of December 31, 2025, the company had repurchased a total of 890,155 shares of Class A common stock for approximately $1.2 million.

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