On-chain Data Academy (Part Seven): A Brand New, Ark-involved $BTC Magical Pricing Methodology (II)

By: blockbeats|2025/04/06 21:15:03

Original Article Title: "On-Chain Data Classroom (VII): A Brand New Set, Ark Participated Research on the Magical Pricing Methodology of $BTC (II)"

Original Article Author: Mr. Berg, On-Chain Data Analyst

If you are not familiar with Cointime Price yet, it is recommended to read the first article: "On-Chain Data Classroom (VI): A Brand New Set, Ark Participated Research on BTC's Magical Pricing Methodology (I)"

TLDR

- The Cointime Price series consists of three articles, this being the second article

- This article will introduce the application method of Cointime Price in top avoidance

- This article will introduce a personally designed deviation model

1. Brief Review of Cointime Price

The concept of Cointime Price originates from Cointime Economics, which evaluates BTC's fair price in a "time-weighted" manner.

Compared to simply Long-Term Holders (LTH) and Short-Term Holders (STH), Cointime Price is more elastic, sensitive, and can effectively exclude the influence of ancient lost BTC.

The first article detailed Cointime Price and its buy-the-dip application. If you already understand the concept, let's officially delve into today's topic: top avoidance application

2. Top Avoidance Application Methodology: Cointime Price Deviation Model Design

Cointime Price Deviation is one of the models I designed during my on-chain data research and has been applied in the weekly top avoidance analysis report.

Related Tweet: [Top Avoidance Model Introduction](https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1870763628645032213)

The following text will explain the model's design principles and how to use the model to assess BTC tops. All content in this article is original research, the research process is not easy, so please show your support

1. Quantifying Current Price Deviation from Cointime Price

Why Measure Deviation?

- The Cointime Price highly represents the true holding cost of BTC chips, especially for Long-Term Holders (LTH).

- Since Long-Term Holders have a greater impact on the Cointime Price, when the BTC current price is significantly higher than the Cointime Price, the profit-taking motivation of Long-Term Holders increases, which may trigger distribution behavior.

· Calculation Formula: Deviation Rate = (Current Price - Cointime Price) / Current Price

· Observing Deviation Rate (Distribution Rate)

On-chain Data Academy (Part Seven): A Brand New, Ark-involved $BTC Magical Pricing Methodology (II)

As shown in the chart, we can obtain the Distribution Rate curve (purple line). We can see that: whenever the Distribution Rate is at a high level, it often corresponds to the BTC top.

So, how do we define a "high level"? Next, we will use statistical methods to address this issue.

2. Cointime Price Deviation Extreme Value Definition

If we observe historical data, we will find that the high points of Deviation are not fixed; in each bull market cycle, the peak value of Deviation slightly decreases. Therefore, it is not rigorous to solely use a fixed numerical value to define a "high level."

To address this, I adopt the concept of statistical "standard deviation":

· Calculate the mean and standard deviation of historical Deviation data.

· Define "Mean + n standard deviations" as the "high level (top signal)," referred to as the Threshold.

· Smooth the Deviation data with a moving average to reduce noise.

· When the moving average value of Deviation> Threshold, trigger a top signal.

· Why Use Standard Deviation?

· The historical trend of Deviation exhibits mean reversion characteristics (as shown in the chart).

· Standard deviation measures volatility, so when BTC price volatility decreases, the Threshold will also dynamically adjust, providing more elasticity.

As shown in the above diagram, after the above processing, we can get such a diagram.

· Supplementary Explanation

- In point 2, "Mean + n Standard Deviations," n is an adjustable parameter: the larger n is, the lower the probability of vertex signal occurrence, and the model is more stringent.

- Point 3's moving average smoothing: mainly filters out short-term market fluctuations to improve signal reliability.

3. Top Escaping Signal Example

As shown in the figure, when the purple line (Distribution Ratio) exceeds the orange line (Threshold), the corresponding BTC price is often at a phase top.

III. Conclusion

This article is the second in the Cointime Price series, continuing the concepts of the previous article, sharing how individuals can design a top escaping model using Cointime Price.

· Summarize Core Points:

- Cointime Price Deviation quantifies the deviation of the current BTC price from the Cointime Price, speculating on the distribution motivation of long-term holders, used to determine the BTC top.

- The "Standard Deviation" method is used to dynamically define top signals to ensure the model is more adaptive.

- The model has been practically applied in weekly reports and can effectively capture BTC high-level signals.

Future Plans:

- The third article in this series will continue to explore the application of Cointime Price in escaping the top, so stay tuned.

Original Article Link

Currently, most Web3 projects are still in the stage of functional fragmentation, often focusing only on a single aspect, such as IP asset tokenization, transaction functionality, or a simple incentive model. This structural dispersion has become a key bottleneck hindering the industry's scale application.

BeatSwap's approach is more integrated, integrating multiple core modules into the same system, including:

· IP authentication and on-chain registration

· Authorization-based revenue sharing mechanism

· User-engagement-driven incentive system

· Transaction and liquidity infrastructure

Through the above integration, the platform builds an end-to-end closed-loop path, allowing IP rights to complete a full cycle of "creation, use, and monetization" within the same ecosystem.

Expanding from Web3 to a broader market: Restructuring the music industry's supply-demand structure

BeatSwap is not limited to existing crypto users but is attempting to take the global music industry as a starting point, actively creating new market demand. Its core strategies include:

Exploring and incubating music creators (Artist discovery)

Building a fan community

Igniting IP-centric content consumption demand

The current global music industry is valued at around $260 billion, with over 2 billion digital music users. This means that the potential market corresponding to the tokenization and financialization of IP far exceeds the traditional crypto user base.

In this context, BeatSwap positions itself at the intersection of "real-world content demand" and "on-chain infrastructure," attempting to bridge the structural gap between content production and financial flow.

"Space" to Launch in Q2 2026: Building the Core of SocialFi

BeatSwap's upcoming core product "Space" is scheduled to launch in the second quarter of 2026. This product is defined as the SocialFi layer in the ecosystem, aiming to directly connect creators with users and achieve deep integration with other platform modules.

Key designs include:

A fan-centric interactive mechanism

Exposure and distribution logic based on $BTX staking

User paths connected to DeFi and liquidity structures

Thus, a complete user behavior loop is formed within the platform: Discovery → Participation → Consumption → Rewards → Trading

$BTX Token Mechanism: Evolving from an Incentive Tool to a Value Carrier

$BTX is designed to be a core utility asset within the ecosystem, rather than just a simple incentive token, with its value directly tied to platform activity and IP use cases.

Main features include:

· Yield distribution based on on-chain authorized actions

· Value reflection based on IP usage and user engagement dynamics

· Support for staking and DeFi participation mechanisms

· Value growth driven by ecosystem expansion

With the increased frequency of IP use, the utility and value support of $BTX will enhance simultaneously, helping alleviate the "disconnect between value and utility" issue present in traditional Web3 token models to some extent.

Accelerating Global Exchange Layout: Enhancing Liquidity and Accessibility

Currently, $BTX has been listed on several mainstream exchanges, including:

Binance Alpha

Gate

MEXC

OKX Boost

As the launch of "Space" approaches, BeatSwap is actively pursuing more exchange listings to further enhance liquidity and global accessibility, laying a foundation for future market expansion.

Beyond Web3: Aiming for a Larger-Scale Integration of Content and Finance Markets

BeatSwap's goal is no longer limited to the traditional Web3 narrative but aims to target over 2 billion digital music users and a trillion KRW-scale content market.

By integrating content creators, users, capital, and liquidity into a blockchain framework centered around IP rights, BeatSwap is striving to build a next-generation infrastructure focused on "IP tokenization."

Conclusion

BeatSwap integrates IP authentication, authorization distribution, incentive mechanism, transaction system, and market construction to establish a unified structure that bridges the full lifecycle path of IP rights.

With the launch of the Q2 2026 "Space," the project is expected to become a key infrastructure connecting content and finance in the IP-RWA (Real World Assets) track.

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