Wintermute: The bottom of Bitcoin is uncertain and attention should be paid to capital flows; Waller's speech and the US-Iran agreement are key

Wintermute released its weekly market report, stating that as of the week ending June 15, the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, along with CPI data, has boosted market risk appetite. Wintermute believes that the risk-reward ratio for Bitcoin at just over $60,000 is quite attractive; each sell-off eliminates weak holders, leaving a group with higher quality holdings and stronger conviction. However, this does not mean that a bottom has been established. Before the situation truly improves, it is not impossible to fall into the $50,000 range. Currently, the position structure has been somewhat cleared, and net selling pressure has eased. What really needs attention is the flow of funds, rather than prices or news headlines.

The real turning point in the last cycle was the continuous growth of inflows into ETFs and stablecoins, and there are currently no signs of this. Therefore, blindly chasing any upward trend is futile. In the short term, Waller's speech on Wednesday is key. If dovish sentiment indicates a softening of core rates and a drop in oil prices, the market will welcome good news; if hawkish sentiment suggests rates rising to 4.2%, the good news will end. Besides that, the agreement signed between the U.S. and Iran in Switzerland on Friday is the truly important event.