XRP ETF inflows could exceed $8.3B by 2026, says Standard Chartered
By: bitcoin ethereum news|2025/05/02 23:45:01
0
Share
NAV benchmarks for BTC and ETH ETFs underpin the forecast. SEC’s final deadline for XRP ETF approval is 12 October. Polymarket data shows a 79% chance of approval by year-end. Anticipation over an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) is building in the crypto sector as analysts weigh up potential inflows, market impacts, and regulatory dynamics. While rumours and delays have shaped much of the recent conversation, data-driven forecasts from key institutions now offer a clearer picture. Standard Chartered Bank projects that a US-listed XRP spot ETF could attract between $4.4 billion and $8.3 billion in inflows within its first year, based on net asset value benchmarks seen in existing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. This projection, while optimistic, comes with caution from others in the market. Standard Chartered bases its projection on ETF benchmarks Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, said NAV-to-market-cap ratios from already approved US spot ETFs were used to model potential XRP ETF inflows. Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs currently show NAVs of around 6% and 3% of their respective market caps. Applying these ratios to XRP’s market capitalisation results in a $4.4 billion to $8.3 billion range. Kendrick highlighted data from Bitwise ETPs in Europe, where XRP, Solana, and Litecoin trade alongside BTC and ETH. He noted that altcoins account for a greater share of ETP NAV relative to their market caps, although this may reflect the lower number of products available for altcoins compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum. XRP price forecast revised amid ETF optimism Based on anticipated ETF inflows, Standard Chartered forecasts a significant XRP price increase. The bank expects XRP to rise to $5.50 by the end of 2025 and reach $8.00 by 2026. The target for 2029 is set at $12.25. This forecast assumes XRP ETF approval and a general continuation of growth in digital asset investment vehicles. For comparison, Kendrick noted that Bitcoin could reach $120,000 in Q2 2025, $200,000 by the end of the year, and $500,000 by 2028. XRP is expected to keep pace, albeit with lower overall adoption and inflation differences. XRP’s current inflation rate stands at 6%, compared to Bitcoin’s 0.8%. Bitfinex analysts issue cautious counterpoint Despite bullish projections, not all market observers are convinced that XRP ETFs would generate the same excitement as Bitcoin products. Analysts from crypto exchange Bitfinex argue that investor interest may be spread thin across a growing list of altcoin ETFs. As such, XRP might not see inflows comparable to Bitcoin, even if approved. Their caution reflects broader concerns about ETF market saturation and regulatory clarity. While Bitcoin enjoys legal clarity as a commodity, XRP has faced classification issues and legal disputes that may influence investor confidence. Timeline for XRP ETF approval remains uncertain Several financial firms, including Grayscale, WisdomTree, Bitwise, Canary, and 21Shares have filed for XRP ETFs with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Bitwise’s application was officially acknowledged on 18 February, setting a maximum deadline of 240 days, or 12 October, for a final decision. This mirrors the timeline applied to Bitcoin spot ETFs earlier in 2024. However, other altcoin ETF applications such as those for Solana and Litecoin could impact when an XRP decision is made. According to Kendrick, Litecoin may be prioritised given its similarity to Bitcoin and its historical treatment as a commodity. Polymarket data shows that as of now, the probability of XRP ETF approval by 31 July is 39%, rising to 79% by the end of the year. Analysts including Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas suggest Litecoin could be the first among altcoins to secure approval, followed by HBAR and eventually XRP and Solana, which face unresolved security classification challenges. Source: https://coinjournal.net/news/xrp-etf-inflows-could-exceed-8-3-billion-by-2026-says-standard-chartered/
You may also like

Once you're over 25, you're already too old to be playing with meme coins.
Pump.fun, the world's largest 24-hour online esports platform

Four New Frontlines Post Ceasefire | Rewire News Daily Brief
Rate Cut Window Pushed Beyond Year End

Holmez accepts Bitcoin for toll payment, how much can Iran earn?
When you stretch the numbers and do the math, the answer turns out to be unexpectedly small

When No One on the Team Wants to Sell: The Valuation Game at Anthropic Enters the “Seller Disappearance” Stage
Anthropic's stock, priced at $350 billion, some want to buy but can't buy enough, some can sell but unwilling to sell.

Anthropic's new product, powerful enough to make the AI Agent Infrastructure team unemployed?
All-inclusive infrastructure, pay-as-you-go pricing, a cloud-based AI agent working for you 24/7.

Trump Admin's $950 Million Bet on Oil Price Plunge Before Ceasefire Turned Crude Market into Insider Trading Heaven
19:45 GMT is a tricky timepoint

Why Did Trump Take the US into War with Iran?
Here is the inside story of how he made this key decision

From Threat to Ceasefire: How Did the U.S. Lose Its Dominance?
A war that cannot be won must be negotiated.

How long can the Ethereum ecosystem survive after the launch of Mythos?
AI dimensionality reduction strikes Ethereum, Mythos instantly breaches cross-contract vulnerabilities rendering traditional audits ineffective, and $68 billion in locked funds faces a life-and-death test of "defensive vacuum."

Morning News | Yi Lihua establishes AI fund OpenX Labs; Pharos Network completes $44 million Series A financing; Iran demands that Hormuz tankers pay Bitcoin as tolls
Overview of Important Market Events on April 8th

Ray Dalio's new article: The world is entering a war cycle
We are in a world war that will not end in the short term.

IOSG: When Fintech Meets Crypto Native: The Next Decade of Digital Finance
Header: FinTech is increasingly integrating stablecoins and blockchain infrastructure into core products, reshaping the global payment landscape.

They knew in advance that Trump would tweet about a ceasefire, entered with $20k, and exited with $400k.
They turned the war into a compounding investment

The biggest bottleneck in DeFi development
Today, the biggest threat facing DeFi is not just market conditions or liquidity; in terms of security, it also requires more than just preventing code vulnerabilities, because spies may be lurking nearby.

CZ Memoir Released: Reveals a Large Amount of Industry Insider Information, Prompting Intense Rebuttal from Xu Mingxing
As one of the most influential figures in the cryptocurrency industry today, Zhao Changpeng has personally experienced the difficult development journey of Binance and the cryptocurrency industry in its early years, which brings many little-known insider stories and details to this book, adding plen...

a16z: After securities are on the blockchain, why will intermediary institutions be replaced by code?
Writing transactions and settlements into code, the securities market begins to break free from intermediaries.

XRP Tokyo Is Here: What We Learn and What’s Next for XRP Price
Key Takeaways: Ripple’s 2025 XRP Tokyo event highlights a projected $33 trillion on-chain stablecoin volume by 2026. Significant…

Solana’s Future: Navigating the $285M Hack, Rug Pulls, and Milei Libra Scandal
Key Takeaways: Multiple Crises: Solana faces a $285 million hack, allegations of rug pulls, and the Milei Libra…
Once you're over 25, you're already too old to be playing with meme coins.
Pump.fun, the world's largest 24-hour online esports platform
Four New Frontlines Post Ceasefire | Rewire News Daily Brief
Rate Cut Window Pushed Beyond Year End
Holmez accepts Bitcoin for toll payment, how much can Iran earn?
When you stretch the numbers and do the math, the answer turns out to be unexpectedly small
When No One on the Team Wants to Sell: The Valuation Game at Anthropic Enters the “Seller Disappearance” Stage
Anthropic's stock, priced at $350 billion, some want to buy but can't buy enough, some can sell but unwilling to sell.
Anthropic's new product, powerful enough to make the AI Agent Infrastructure team unemployed?
All-inclusive infrastructure, pay-as-you-go pricing, a cloud-based AI agent working for you 24/7.
Trump Admin's $950 Million Bet on Oil Price Plunge Before Ceasefire Turned Crude Market into Insider Trading Heaven
19:45 GMT is a tricky timepoint
